Tactical Voting Websites:  What does it all mean?

The current campaign has seen a proliferation of tactical voting websites because of the widespread perception this election is too difficult to call.  By contrast the snap poll in 2017, together with the assumption that the Tories were on course to an easy win, meant there was less time or inclination to identify the best placed party to challenge the Tories in marginal constituencies.  2019 has been very different.

Voters who are inclined to seek tactical voting advice in this election have various options to help guide their electoral choices.  Ordinarily this would be a welcome thing- if there was a consensus as to which party had the greatest chance of defeating the Conservatives.  Unfortunately, eschewing reference to the latest and best polling data available, some tactical voting sites have issued advice that has been downright misleading.  Broxtowe is a primary case in point.  But three separate authoritative sources are clear that only Labour can stop the Conservatives winning our seat:

No1.  The YouGov MRP study, published last week and based on a very large representative sample, has clearly indicated Broxtowe is a two horse between Labour’s Greg Marshall and the Tory candidate.  Both are vying for first place.  The graph below from pollsters YouGov, a leading member of the British Polling Council, confirms this:

Tory turned independent Anna Soubry is now a distant third, with the Greens a clear fourth.  Neither candidate has any realistic chance of winning Broxtowe on 12th December.

 

No2.  The most reliable tactical voting site- https://tactical.vote/broxtowe (based on the best available polling evidence combined with the 2017 result) has come to the same conclusion as YouGov:

 

Spread tactical voting

2017 election results

Conservative 25,983 46.81%
Labour 25,120 45.25%
Liberal Democrat 2,247 4.05%
UK Independence Party 1,477 2.66%
Green 681 1.23%
  • Margin: 1.55%. This is a marginal seat.

 

No3. Finally the German based British political expert and Green Party activist Jon Worth has declared anybody thinking of tactically voting against the Tories should support Greg here in Broxtowe

Your vote is precious, make sure you use it wisely!

The sole non-Conservative with any hope of becoming your MP is Labour’s Greg Marshall.  Greg is also the only genuine ‘From Broxtowe, For Broxtowe’ candidate.

Vote Labour on 12th December and make sure you have a real local voice to stand up for you in Parliament.

 

December 4, 2019

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